The 2024 US presidential election outcome signals potential shifts in the transatlantic pharmaceutical landscape. Key points to watch:
Trade Policy Shifts
- Proposed tariffs of up to 10% on imports with up to 60% on Chinese goods, could significantly impact EU pharma exports to the US, disrupting established supply chains and potentially increasing costs for American patients.
- During his previous term, Trump imposed tariffs on certain European products, including some medicines. A return to this protectionist approach seems likely, potentially affecting a wider range of pharmaceutical products.
Trade Agreements Under Scrutiny
- The incoming administration has pledged to review and potentially renegotiate existing trade agreements in favor of the United States, aiming to secure more favorable terms for the United States. This could affect pharmaceutical trade between the EU and the US, potentially altering market access and regulatory harmonization efforts.
- Trump has previously criticized European countries for paying lower prices for medicines compared to the US, describing European patients as "free riders" on US pharmaceutical innovation. This suggests he might seek to renegotiate terms related to drug pricing and patent protections, which could impact European pharma companies' pricing strategies and R&D investments.
Production Shifts on the Horizon?
- The threat of tariffs and trade tensions could lead some EU pharmaceutical companies to consider shifting investment and production to the US to avoid higher trade costs. This could have long-term implications for European pharmaceutical manufacturing and employment.
US-Centric Healthcare Policies
- New incentives for domestic drug production in the US could challenge European imports, possibly including tax breaks or preferential treatment for US-made pharmaceuticals.
Deregulation 2.0
- During his first term, Trump had relaxed some FDA regulations. A new wave of deregulation could create a competitive advantage for American companies.
Scientific Collaboration at Risk
- Transatlantic research partnerships may face challenges under a more isolationist approach. This could affect joint research initiatives, data sharing, and collaborative clinical trials, potentially slowing global pharmaceutical innovation.
Opportunities for European Pharma
Paradoxically, some of Trump's policies could create opportunities for the European industry:
- Changes in US regulations could enhance the appeal of European standards in international markets, positioning EU pharma as a benchmark for quality and safety.
- Trade tensions could encourage the EU to strengthen its strategic autonomy in the pharmaceutical field, potentially leading to increased investment in European R&D and manufacturing capabilities.
European pharmaceutical companies will need to remain vigilant and agile to adapt to this new geopolitical context. The EU's ability to defend its commercial interests, maintain its commitment to high regulatory standards, and pursue its own pharmaceutical innovation strategy will be crucial in navigating these challenges.